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Post No.: 0863aversion

 

Fluffystealthkitten says:

 

Did you know that numerous astronauts have reported that space smells a bit like smoky metal or burnt meat?

 

Furrywisepuppy says:

 

Where they’ve journeyed so far hasn’t been that bad though because I can straight up tell you that the stinkiest place in the Solar System is around Uranus. Bleurgh!

 

Fluffystealthkitten says:

 

Well, that figures!

 

…After exploring a constellation of biases of perception and belief in Post No.: 0850, we’re now docking onto some common decision-making and behavioural biases.

 

Furrywisepuppy says:

 

Let’s make a start then!

 

Fluffystealthkitten says:

 

Ambiguity effect – this is about how we typically have an aversion to options where missing information makes their probability seem unknown. More specifically, we tend to go for options where the probability of a favourable outcome is known, over those where the probability of a favourable outcome is unknown.

 

Furrywisepuppy says:

 

Anchoring or focalism – this is the propensity to rely too heavily on, or to ‘anchor’ onto, one piece of information; usually the first piece that we acquire on an issue. Or when estimating a number, we tend to start off from a readily available but possibly arbitrary, irrelevant or random reference value (anchor) and then shift up/down from that value without deviating too far from it. We basically tend to rely too heavily on the first pieces of information offered to us.

 

Fluffystealthkitten says:

 

Backfire effect – reacting to disconfirming evidence by strengthening one’s pre-existing beliefs, in order to relieve cognitive dissonance.

 

Furrywisepuppy says:

 

Bandwagon effect – how we tend to believe or do things because many other people believe or do the same. This is related to groupthink or herd behaviour.

 

Fluffystealthkitten says:

 

Bystander effect – this concerns how we can be more hesitant to offer help to an apparent victim when we can see that other people are around who could do so.

 

Furrywisepuppy says:

 

Confirmation bias or myside bias – the inclination to seek, interpret, focus on and recall information in a way that confirms one’s current worldviews. This means that what one learns and accepts early in life can become reinforced and resistant to change.

 

Fluffystealthkitten says:

 

Congruence bias – the proclivity to only test our own hypotheses, instead of also testing all the possible alternative hypotheses. Related to confirmation bias.

 

Furrywisepuppy says:

 

Conservatism bias – the penchant to revise one’s belief insufficiently or too slowly when presented with new evidence.

 

Fluffystealthkitten says:

 

Decoy effect – how one’s preference for option A can change in favour of option B once an additional option C is presented, which is similar to but strictly dominated by (inferior in all respects to) option B and partially dominated by option A.

 

Furrywisepuppy says:

 

Denomination effect – how we can spend more money when it is denominated in small amounts, such as coins, instead of large amounts, such as notes.

 

Fluffystealthkitten says:

 

Disposition effect – the tendency to sell an asset that has risen in value, and aversion to sell an asset that has dropped in value.

 

Furrywisepuppy says:

 

Dread aversion – just like loss aversion, dreading something carries more emotional impact than eagerly anticipating something.

 

Fluffystealthkitten says:

 

Effort justification or effort heuristic – thinking that an outcome that had required more effort to obtain is more valuable. Or putting more effort into things that one considers more valuable.

 

Furrywisepuppy says:

 

Endowment effect – people often demand much more to give up an object they already possess than they would be willing to pay to acquire the same object if they didn’t already possess it. Related to loss aversion.

 

So I’d want to sell my dog bowl for €10. But if I didn’t already own this exact bowl, I’d only be willing to pay something like €8 to buy it.

 

Fluffystealthkitten says:

 

Functional fixedness – how a user limits themselves to using an object only in the way it was traditionally used or designed for.

 

Furrywisepuppy says:

 

Groupshift – how decisions can become amplified to be more risk-seeking/risk-averse in a group decision, if the individuals in that group were already biased in that direction.

 

Fluffystealthkitten says:

 

Groupthink – when the desire for group harmony or to avoid conflict leads to blindly or futilely surrendering to conformity even when the result is irrational or sub-optimal. The range of options isn’t sufficiently critically assessed and any alternative viewpoints are suppressed, including via the group isolating themselves from outside voices.

 

Furrywisepuppy says:

 

Hyperbolic discounting, current moment bias or present bias – the way we usually have a stronger preference for more immediate payoffs relative to later payoffs, and where this susceptibility increases the closer to the present both payoffs are. Related to dynamic or time inconsistency in economics. We can consequently inconsistently make choices today that our future selves would prefer not to have been made!

 

Fluffystealthkitten says:

 

Identifiable victim effect or compassion fade – the tendency to respond more compassionately towards a small number of identifiable persons at risk than towards a large group of anonymous people at risk.

 

Furrywisepuppy says:

 

IKEA effect – the proclivity for people to place a disproportionately higher value on any objects that they at least partially had a hand in making themselves, regardless of the quality of the end result, as long as they had successfully completed the build. We don’t just make what we love but love what we make! It’s a specific example of effort justification.

 

Fluffystealthkitten says:

 

Interoceptive bias or hungry judge effect – how our internal states affect our judgements about unrelated external things, like how a teacher might behave more leniently towards her/his students after being well-fed!

 

Furrywisepuppy says:

 

Less-is-better effect – people may prefer a smaller to a larger set of something when they’re judged separately, yet not jointly, because of how those sets are presented.

 

Fluffystealthkitten says:

 

Loss aversion – the negative utility of giving up an object/option feels greater than the positive utility associated with acquiring the same object/option.

 

Furrywisepuppy says:

 

Mere exposure effect or familiarity principle – we tend to express more liking for things the more familiar we are with them. Therefore the repeated exposure to a stimulus usually increases our liking of it. We generally feel more comfortable with and stick with familiar options and routines, especially under conditions of high cognitive load.

 

Fluffystealthkitten says:

 

Mere ownership effect – the tendency for us to value an item more highly if we own it compared to someone who doesn’t own it. Related to the endowment effect but without the impact of loss aversion.

 

Furrywisepuppy says:

 

Money illusion – the propensity to focus on the nominal (face value) of cash rather than its value in terms of purchasing power.

 

Fluffystealthkitten says:

 

Moral credential effect – the way that a track record of non-prejudice can increase the chances of a subsequent prejudice; as if, if one (or someone from one’s ingroup) has been good one time then one is allowed to be bad the next time without guilt!

 

Furrywisepuppy says:

 

Network effect – the proneness for certain popular things to become even more valuable and popular.

 

Fluffystealthkitten says:

 

Normalcy bias – the hesitation to plan for, or react to, a catastrophe that has never happened before (yet).

 

Furrywisepuppy says:

 

Ostrich effect – ostriches don’t really bury their heads in the sand but this effect is about dismissing an obvious, usually negative, situation.

 

Fluffystealthkitten says:

 

Outcome bias – how we tend to judge a decision according to its eventual outcome instead of based on the quality of the decision process at the time it was made. Related to the hindsight bias.

 

Furrywisepuppy says:

 

Plan continuation bias – the failure to recognise that an original plan is no longer appropriate in light of new information or changing circumstances.

 

Fluffystealthkitten says:

 

Planning fallacy – the tendency to underestimate how long it’ll take to complete a task.

 

Furrywisepuppy says:

 

Pragmatic bias – the aversion to back something that’s desirable because one believes it’d be futile to. For instance, preferring a female candidate for presidency yet not voting for her in a primary election because one believes it’d be a wasted vote because not enough others will support her, or it’s believed that she won’t be able to successfully stand against the male candidates from the opposition parties.

 

Fluffystealthkitten says:

 

Pseudocertainty effect – the gravitation towards making risk-averse choices if the expected outcome is framed positively, yet risk-seeking choices if the expected outcome is framed negatively, even when both options actually offer the same utility or expected value. Or the tendency to perceive an outcome as certain when it is in fact uncertain, particularly in multi-stage decisions where the evaluation of outcomes in a previous decision stage is discarded when making a choice in a subsequent stage.

 

Furrywisepuppy says:

 

Reactance or boomerang effect – how we often want to do the opposite of what we’re told to do merely out of a desire to resist a perceived attempt to constrain our freedom of choice. This is how reverse psychology can work on us.

 

Fluffystealthkitten says:

 

Reactive devaluation – devaluing an idea or proposal merely because it supposedly originated from someone we don’t like!

 

Furrywisepuppy says:

 

Regret aversion – an aversion towards making a decision for the fear of getting it wrong, thus a tentativeness to taking even appropriate risks.

 

Fluffystealthkitten says:

 

Restraint bias – the tendency to overestimate one’s ability to demonstrate restraint when faced with temptation. Related to the empathy gap.

 

Furrywisepuppy says:

 

Risk aversion – the reluctance to accept a bargain with an uncertain payoff compared to another bargain with a more certain but possibly lower expected payoff.

 

Fluffystealthkitten says:

 

Risk compensation or Peltzman effect – the tendency to take more risks when perceived safety increases.

 

Furrywisepuppy says:

 

Scope neglect or scope insensitivity – being insensitive to the size of a problem when evaluating it, like being willing to donate the same amount to save 100 quolls as for 1,000.

 

Fluffystealthkitten says:

 

Snakebite effect – once bitten by a failure in a particular context, one may feel an aversion towards trying something again in a similar context, even though each event could be independent and should therefore each be judged on its own merits afresh.

 

Furrywisepuppy says:

 

Social comparison bias – when making hiring decisions, we tend to favour candidates who don’t compete with our own particular strengths because we don’t want to appear less competent than those around us!

 

Fluffystealthkitten says:

 

Social desirability bias – how we typically over-report socially desirable characteristics/behaviours and under-report socially undesirable characteristics/behaviours in oneself.

 

Furrywisepuppy says:

 

Status quo bias or system justification – how we mostly express an aversion towards change, even if it’d be good, and prefer things to stay relatively stable and the same. This results in defending and reinforcing the status quo.

 

Fluffystealthkitten says:

 

Sunk cost fallacy, escalation of commitment or irrational escalation – we often try to justify an increasing investment into a decision, based on our cumulative prior investment into it already, even if new evidence suggests that the cost-benefit of continuing with it from today onwards is negative. It’s like doubling-down on our decision because we refuse to admit we were wrong or to believe that our prior investment has been a waste.

 

Furrywisepuppy says:

 

Time-saving bias – underestimating the time that could be saved/lost when increasing/decreasing from a relatively low speed, and overestimating the time that could be saved/lost when increasing/decreasing from a relatively high speed.

 

Fluffystealthkitten says:

 

Unit bias – the inclination to want to completely finish a given unit of a task/item, such as a given portion or packet of kitty snacks!

 

Furrywisepuppy says:

 

Well-travelled road effect – underestimating the time taken to traverse oft-travelled routes, and overestimating the time taken to traverse less-familiar routes.

 

Fluffystealthkitten says:

 

Yellow Pages effect – how we often go for the thing that comes first alphanumerically when we have no better way to decide what to go for.

 

Furrywisepuppy says:

 

Zero-risk or certainty bias – the preference for reducing a small risk to zero over a greater reduction of a larger risk, or the tendency to select an option that eliminates risk completely rather than merely reducing it.

 

(A reverberant boom is felt, then sirens sound)

 

Fluffystealthkitten says:

 

 

What was that?!

 

Furrywisepuppy says:

 

There’s a fire in the hull! Woof!

 

Fluffystealthkitten says:

 

****! Meow!

 

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